Thursday, January 15, 2004

I think it's sacrilege to leave Elanor's rundown of the US Democratic nomination in the comments section, so here it is:
Okay, there are 8 people vying for the Democratic nomination, and at the moment, Howard Dean is the favourite, but Wesley Clark is firming as his main competitor, as Dean has no national security experience and Clark is all over that shit, apparently. Both continue to make gaffes, but both also continue to be the focus of media attention and speculation. Dean has more funds than any other nominee because of some internet-based grass roots donation thing, with people going wild for him because he opposed the war in Iraq. That means, that if he loses one of the primary races he is contesting, he'll still have cash left over to contest another one in another state, or something. Most other candidates won't have enough cash to fund numerous tilts at primary races. I'm not actually sure what primaries are, really, but the first thing that's going to happen is the Iowa Caucuses. Clark is not contesting the Iowa caucuses, and is instead placing all his hopes on a win in New Hampshire, which he hopes will give him enough momentum for later charges (also, he had a prior engagement to Iowa. He's been testifying against Slobodan Milosevic at the Hague). A lot of the poorer candidates are strategising likewise.

Anyway, in Iowa, people are saying it's a race between Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean, but it's a bit up in the air. Apparently, Iowans take this caucus thing very seriously and are very conscientious about choosing the right candidate based on policy ideas and electability. Some people think Dean has an electability problem (too liberal, ex-Governor of Vermont who signed that civil union thing into state law, ex-GP, no national security experience, etc). Some others are predicting a Dean backlash in light of his recent move to emphasise his electability by emphasising his religious beliefs. I myself like John Edwards and John Kerry, but they don't seem to have a chance in hell. Kerry was an early favourite, being a Vietnam Vet who returned from two tours of duty to become a principled anti-war figurehead. Very respected. Always gets hit with the 'aloof' and 'elite' and 'intellectual' (gasp!) tag because he likes to be precise and detailed about his statements. However, did a lifestyle piece about his Heinz heiress wife and his penchant for Harley Davidsons though, so, um, not sure about his chances now. Edwards is young and ethical and stuff. However, no coverage, see. Much respect, but no coverage. There's also Joe Leiberman, who's a bit too 'family values' and 'religion is the basis of morality' for my taste. Another one is Denis Kucinich, and I only know about him because David Letterman keeps making fun of his name and chances, though I also get the feeling that he is a decent guy. Too decent, seems to be the consensus.

The 'joke' candidates are Carol Moseley Braun (she's a woman!) and the Rev. Al Sharpton (he's black! He appeared in a Spike Lee film as himself; a black activist!), although Alec Baldwin made a fine point that these two, despite their 'laughable' status, would do a better job than Bush and his Administration. I have come to like Alec Baldwin. Good interview performer. Anyway, Dean overshadows everyone, EXCEPT for Wesley Clark. Clark came into the game late, and his ex-NATO commander stuff and his saving 1.5 million people in Kosovo or something made people go mental for him, too. He's got what Martin Amis refers to as 'retirement wisdom', although Amis was using the term in the 80s in reference to that guy who is the subject of that The Fog Of War documentary. Some believe that if Dean secures the nomination, Clark would be the perfect Vice-President for him, because he would fill up Dean's weak national security spot. Clark, however, stated flat out the other week on america's Meet The Press that if Dean won the nomination, he would not accept the Vice Presidency if the DNC offerred it to him. He's all 'I'm campaigning to be President' at the moment, but, you know, if it all plays out how they say it will, "Your country needs you" might win over "I said NEVER". He also gets grilled a lot about whether or not Hillary will be entering the race. Actually, now that the date for formalising your candidacy for this election has passed, now he gets asked if he would be prepared to VP for Hillary in 2008. I don't think he likes all this VP talk.

Anyway, Iowa happens soon, so I'm rooting for Edwards or Kerry or, well, pretty much anyone except Lieberman. They all seem like good sorts, really, I don't know why everyone keeps making fun of them as a group. Guy, I think I went overboard with this, and I doubt it will help anyone because it's all partial recollections of articles and Newshour and stuff. Oh, and the Madonna thing doesn't matter unless she gives a substantial donation or does massive fundraising stuff, which is what makes Babs a Democrat queen. I think Michael Moore is also stumping for Clark, but my brother says he's not as funny as Al Franken, so who knows what that means?

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